Adaptive Stance: "Experiment, Inspect and Adapt"

Our linear thinking struggles with decision-making in an uncertain situation. Committing to an unknown strategy that will be guided by an undefined series of "experiment, inspect and adapt" cycles is a challenge to most leaders.

This problem is increasingly recognised in military circles. The battlefield is an extreme example of a Complex Adaptive System, with modern communication and networking enabling enemy elements to communicate instantly, sharing information and changing tactics. For a military leader, the consequences of failing to adapt quickly are extreme.

A guideline to achieving an "Adaptive Stance" mindset for military decision making is laid out in "Decision-Making" by Lieutenant Colonel Mick Say and Lieutenant Colonel Ben Pronk:


The Adaptive Stance is built within a framework of a number of key personal qualities:

• Ambiguity tolerance. There are no simple solutions to complex problems, and attempts to remove ambiguity from a situation can be very dangerous. Every effort must therefore be made to resist the urge to over-simplify the complex. Again, one must accept that messiness and sense-making are key.
• Self-reflection through ever-present consideration of the questions: ‘How would I know if I was wrong about this?’ and ‘How much would it matter?’ This characteristic encapsulates an ‘ingrained habit of thoughtful self-reflection about the effectiveness of one’s beliefs, actions and decisions’. It echoes the requirement to treat one’s own ideas dispassionately, helps to combat confirmation bias, and primes the practitioner to be constantly on the lookout for ‘Question Four’ moments.
• Decriminalisation of being wrong, openness to learning and supporting others’ learning. If one accepts that it is virtually impossible to predict the outcomes of an interaction with a CAS, and the process of adaptation entails elements of trial and error, then it becomes completely naïve to expect ‘fail-safe business plans with defined outcomes’. Toleration of failure is an ‘essential aspect of experimental understanding'